06/10/2020

Overview

Purpose of these slides is to present some graphs to compare developments in Norway with the Rest-of-World (primarily the US). I update the graphs (almost) daily.

  • Some useful links
  • Covid-19
  • Foreign exchange
  • Equity markets
  • Fixed income markets (interest rates)

Financial markets are like “barometers” of the economy (apparently due to Gustav Cassel). Graphs show developments in key markets: FX, equity markets (including VIX), and government and private interest rates.

Links: Economics

Links: Covid-19

Covid-19

  • Focus on deaths as there are large international differences in testing-frequency/strategy, which makes comparison difficult
  • However: There are differences also in how different countries report number of deaths. There has been reports that Italy only reports those that die in hospitals, and also reports that there are differences across states in the US whether deaths are reported due to Covid-19 or other underlying causes
  • Selection of countries is a bit arbitrary, but seems that countries with less or late Covid-measures experience higher growth-rate in deaths.

Covid-19: Death pr 100K people

Covid-19: Growth rate of deaths (MA3)

## [1] "DEXUSEU" "DEXUSUK"

Important Covid-19 dates: Norway

This slide will be developed. Only selected dates and events.

  • Feb 26: First case in Norway
  • March 14: First death in Norway
  • Mar 13: All schools and child-care close
  • April 20-27: Prep school and child-care opens gradually
  • April 20: Norwegians once again allowed to go to their cabins :-)

Policy:

  • March 13: Plenty, among easening rules regarding temporary lay-offs
  • March 20: (Re)establishing The Government Bond Fund, and establishing loans to SME’s
  • March 27: Covering fixed costs of companies (implemented April 16)
  • April 16: Support to entrepreneurs and growth-firms

Important Covid-19 dates: Internationally

  • Dec 2019: Firt corona-case in Wuhan, China
  • Dec 31,2019: First report to WHO from China
  • Jan 23: Wuhan under quarantine
  • Feb 21: Italy outbreak (Iran two days earlier)
  • Feb 29: First death on US soil
  • March 11: WHO declares pandemic

Foreign exchange

  • USD has appreciated
    • A quick depreciation in early march due to carry-unwinding (CHF and JPY appreciated)
    • Followed by a new appreciation, most likely as investor seeking safe asset (US Treasury) or needing US cash.
    • CHF and JPY depreciated against USD in this period
  • NOK has depreciated a lot, but mostly in a big overnight jump in very illiquid markets
    • NB bought NOK bn 16 last three weeks, compared to NOK bn 3.3 the three preceding weeks
  • Other currencies has also depreciated, like GBP (vs. USD) or SEK (vs. EUR).

USD has appreciated I (EURUSD)