Hilde C. Bjørnland:

Research and Bibliography

 

 

Main research interests are in the fields of macroeconomics and time series. Special interests include the study of business cycles, monetary policy, forecasting and the analysis of the effects of dynamic shocks in vector autoregression models.

 

View publications at Google Scholar.  See also RePEc home page, with paper download ranking and ranking of top economists in Norway  and Europe.

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Research in progress  

Selected publications

Selected publications in Norwegian

Reports

 


 Research in progress

·         "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies" (coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud) Norges Bank Working paper series no 12/2014. Under revision.

A previous version (analyzing only Norway) has been circulated under the title: "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy", see CAMP Working paper series no 6/2013 and CAMA Working paper 76/2013.

See coverage in Financial Times, FT online and Bloomberg.

 

·          "Ringvirkninger - Norsk økonomi og olje", CME Working Paper 7, 2013, (coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud).

 

·         "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation" (coauthors Ragna Alstadheim and Junior Maih), Norges Bank Working Paper 2013/24. Submitted.

 

·         "Commodity prices, fiscal policy design and economic activity" (coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud)

 

·         “Oil and the great moderation in a regime switching framework” (coauthor Vegard H. Larsen)

 

·         "The implicit inflation target in the US" (coauthors Marcelle Chauvet and Junior Maih).

 


Selected publications

1.      "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies" (coauthors Knut Are Aastveit and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Forthcoming in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014.

 

2.      "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence" (coauthors Knut Are Aastveit and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Forthcoming in Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2014.

 

3.      Applied time series for Macroeconomics (coauthor: Leif Anders Thorsrud), 2014, Gyldendal Akademiske forlag. Click here to download data and programs to implement examples from the text.

 

4.      "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Norway and Sweden" (coauthor: Junior Maih) in  Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, edited by Torben M. Andersen, Michael Bergman and Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, 2014, Oxford University Press.

 

5.      "How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence" (coauthor Jørn Inge Halvorsen). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 76(2), 2014, 208-232.  Previous version available in CAMAR Working Paper Series 1/2010 or in Norges Bank Working Paper 2008/15. See coverage in Finansavisen. See here for Codes for download (RATS).

 

6.      "House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism", (coauthor Dag Henning Jacobsen). Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 115(4), 2013, 1084-1106. Previously available under the title: “The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S.” Norges Bank Working Paper 2008/24.

 

7.      "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?" (coauthors Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), 2012, 163-179. For a previous working paper version, see here.

 

8.      "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination" (coauthors Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud). North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 22(1), 2011, 61-76, (Previous title: There is more than one weight to skin a cat: Combining densities at Norges Bank). Working paper version available at Norges Bank Working Paper 2010/06.

 

9.      "Estimating the Natural Rates in a simple New Keynesian Framework"  (coauthors: Kai Leitemo and Junior Maih). Empirical Economics, 40, 2011, 755-777. Working paper version available at Norges Bank Working Paper 2007/10. See her for  Codes for download (MATLAB)

 

10.  "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies" (coauthor Dag Henning Jacobsen). Journal of Financial Stability, 6, 2010, 218-229. (For a previous working paper version, see here). See here for codes for download (RATS).

 

11.  "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all". Journal of International Economics, 79(1), 2009, 64-77. The paper has previously been circulated under the title: "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle. (For a previous working paper version, see here.)  Data and codes for download (RATS). See coverage in New Economist and in Economist’s View.

 

12.  "Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market" (coauthor: Kai Leitemo). Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 2009, 275-282. (For a previous working paper version, see here.) For robustness tests, see the Appendix. See here for Replication files made by Tom Doan in RATS. See coverage in New Economist, Aftenposten, Finansavisen and in E24.

 

13.  "Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country". Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 56(2), 2009, 232-254.

 

14.  "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap" (coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore). Empirical Economics, 35, 2008, 413-436. Working paper version available at Norges Bank Working Paper 2006/2.

 

15.  "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110, 2008, 197-221. (For a previous working paper version, see here).

 

16.  "The commodity currency puzzle" (coauthor: Håvard Hungnes), ICFAI Journal of Monetary Economics, Icfai Press, VI, 2008, 7-30. (For a previous working paper version see Discussion Papers No. 423, 2005, Statistics Norway). 

 

17.  "The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate" (coauthor: Håvard Hungnes). Journal of Forecasting 25, 2006, 209-221. (For a previous working paper version, see here).

 

18.  "A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: The case of Venezuela". Applied Economics, 37, 2005, 375-385. Data file can be downloaded from here.

 

19.  "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela". Economics Bulletin, 6, 2004, 1-8. Data file can be downloaded from here.

 

20.  "The role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in a small open economy". Open Economies Review, 15, 2004, 23-43.

 

21.  "Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation". Applied Economics, 33, 2001, 1819-1831. (For a previous working paper version, see IMF Working Paper No. 00/4, also available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=879310 ).

 

22.  "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks - A comparative study". The Manchester School of Economic Studies, 68, 2000, 578-607.

 

23.  "Detrending Methods and Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in Norway - An international comparison". Empirical Economics, 25, 2000, 369-392.

 

24.  "Structural breaks and stochastic trends in macroeconomic variables in Norway". Applied Economics Letters, 6, 1999, 133-138.

 

25.  “The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector”. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45, 1998, 553-585.

 

 


Selected publications in Norwegian

·         "Statsbudsjett i en uvanlig høykonjunktur", Økonomisk forum nr. 8 2007

·         "Produksjonsgapet i Norge – en sammenlikning av metoder" (coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore), Penger og Kreditt 4/2004, Norges Bank.

·         "Konjunkturforskning i et historisk lys. Er konjunktursvingninger like reelle som før?" Økonomisk forum nr. 1, 2002, 30-40.

·         "Håpløse spådommer, bølgeteori og falske sykler". Sosialøkonomen nr. 6, 1998, 18-27.

·         "Kilder til konjunktursvingninger i norsk økonomi". Økonomiske analyser, 4/98, Statistics Norway, 1998, 3-13.

·         "Estimering av underliggende inflasjon". Sosialøkonomen nr. 7/8, 1997, 14-20.

 


Reports

·         "An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway" (coauthors: Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen), Norges Bank Watch Report 2011, Centre for Monetary Economics (CME), BI Norwegian Business School.

·         "An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway" (coauthors: Richard Clarida, Elisabeth Holvik and Erling Steigum), Norges Bank Watch Report 2010, Centre for Monetary Economics (CME), BI Norwegian Business School.

·         Improving and evaluating short term forecasts at the Norges Bank” (coauthors: Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud), Staff Memo No. 4 2008

·         "The output gap in Norway - a comparison of different methods (coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore), Economic Bulletin 2/2005, Norges Bank.

·         "An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway" (coauthors: Thomas Ekeli, Petra M. Geraats and Kai Leitemo), Norges Bank Watch Report Series 5, 2004, Centre for Monetary Economics (CME), BI Norwegian School of Management.

·         "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway" (coauthor: Håvard Hungnes). Discussion Papers No. 326, 2002, Statistics Norway (also published, in a previous version, as Memorandum 23, 2002, University of Oslo).

·         VAR models in Macroeconomic Research, Documents 2000/14, Statistics Norway.

·         "Economic fluctuations: A study of sources and the dynamic effects of real and nominal shocks". University of Oslo, Økonomiske Doktoravhandlinger nr. 46, 1998.

·         "Trends, Cycles and Measures of Persistence in the Norwegian Economy". Social and Economic Studies 92, 1995, Statistics Norway. (ISBN 82-537-4220-7).