Hilde C. Bjørnland:
Research and Bibliography
Main research interests are in the fields of macroeconomics and time
series. Special interests include the study of business cycles, monetary
policy, forecasting and the analysis of the effects of dynamic shocks in vector
autoregression models.
View publications at Google Scholar. See also RePEc home
page, with paper
download ranking and ranking of top economists in Norway and Europe.
New
book in 2015: Applied Time Series for Macroeconomics (second edition)
·
"Supply
Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota" (coauthors Frode
Martin Nordvik
and Maximilian
Rohrer),
CAMP Working paper 2/2017, or see Norges
Bank Working Paper 9/2017.
·
"Do
central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?" (coauthors
Leif
Anders Thorsrud
and Sepideh
Khayati Zahiri),
CAMP Working paper 8/2016. Submitted.
·
"Oil
and macroeconomic (in)stability" (coauthors Vegard
H. Larsen
and Junior
Maih),
Norges Bank Working paper 12/2016. Revises and resubmitted to American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. A previous version can be found here.
·
"Commodity
prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite
a rule"
(coauthor Leif
Anders Thorsrud),
CAMP Working paper 5/2015. Submitted.
·
"Do
central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural
investigation"
(coauthors Ragna
Alstadheim
and Junior
Maih),
Norges Bank Working Paper 2013/24. Revise and resubmit to Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking.
·
"Monetary
policy, leaning and concern for financial stability"
(coauthors Leif Brubakk and Junior Maih)
-
Paper
first presented
at The 8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics
(CFE 2014), Pisa, December 6 2014.
- See also my chapter in "Should monetary policy pay attention to financial stability?" in ‘Erfaringer med inflasjonsmål for Pengepolitikken’, Finansdepartementet, Arbeidsnotat 2017/4, pages 77-83.
·
"Dutch
Disease Dynamics Reconsidered" (coauthors Leif Anders Thorsrud and Ragnar
Torvik)
·
"Is
Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a
DSGE Model" (coauthors Andrew Binning and Junior Maih)
·
"The
implicit inflation target in the US" (coauthors Marcelle Chauvet and
Junior Maih).
Selected
publications
1.
"Forecasting
GDP with global components. This time is different" (coauthors Francesco Ravazzolo and Leif Anders Thorsrud), International Journal of
Forecasting, vol. 33(1), 2017, 153-173 For a previous version, see CAMP
Working paper 1/2015.
2.
"Boom
or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies" (coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud) Economic Journal, vol.
126(598), 2016, 2219-2256. For a previous version, see Norges
Bank Working paper 12/2014
or CAMP
Working Paper No 6/2013, (a first version, analyzing only
Norway, was circulated under the title: "Boom or gloom? Examining the
Dutch disease in a two-speed economy").
o
See LSE Business Review: The ‘Dutch disease’ reexamined: Resource
booms can benefit the wider economy
o
See also coverage in
Financial Times, FT online ,
Bloomberg
and Aftenposten.
3.
"The
world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence" (coauthors Knut
Are Aastveit
and Leif
Anders Thorsrud).
Scandinavian
Journal of Economics, vol. 118(1), 2016, 168-195. For a previous
version, see CAMP
Working paper series no 3/2011
4.
Second edition Applied time series for Macroeconomics (coauthor: Leif
Anders Thorsrud),
2015, Gyldendal Akademiske forlag.
Click here to download data and programs
to implement examples from the text.
5. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Norway and Sweden" (coauthor: Junior Maih) in Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, edited by Torben M. Andersen, Michael Bergman and Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, 2015, Oxford University Press.
6.
"What
drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies" (coauthors Knut
Are Aastveit
and Leif
Anders Thorsrud).
Journal
of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 30(7), 2015, 1013–1028. For a
previous version, see CAMP
Working paper series no 2/2012
7.
"How
does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international
evidence"
(coauthor Jørn
Inge Halvorsen).
Oxford
Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 76(2), 2014, 208-232. Previous version available as CAMAR
Working Paper 1/2010.
See coverage in Finansavisen. See here for Codes
for download (RATS).
8.
"House prices and stock prices: Different roles
in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism", (coauthor Dag Henning
Jacobsen). Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 115(4), 2013,
1084-1106. See also CAMP
Working 1/2012, (formerly titled as “The role
of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the
U.S.”).
9.
"Does
forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?" (coauthors
Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore,
Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
74(2), 2012, 163-179. For a previous working paper version, see here.
10. "Weights
and pools for a Norwegian density combination" (coauthors Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore,
Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud). North American Journal of Economics and
Finance. 22(1), 2011, 61-76, (formerly titled as “There is
more than one weight to skin a cat: Combining densities at Norges Bank”).
Working paper version available at Norges
Bank Working Paper 2010/06.
11. "Estimating the Natural Rates in a simple New
Keynesian Framework"
(coauthors: Kai Leitemo
and Junior Maih). Empirical Economics, 40, 2011, 755-777. Working paper version
available at Norges
Bank Working Paper 2007/10.
See her for Codes for download (MATLAB)
12. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy
transmission mechanism in small open economies" (coauthor Dag Henning
Jacobsen). Journal of Financial Stability, 6, 2010, 218-229. (For a
previous working paper version, see here). See here for codes for download
(RATS).
13. "Monetary
policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was
right after all". Journal of International
Economics, 79(1), 2009, 64-77, (formerly titled
“Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle”). For a previous
working paper version, see here. Data and codes for download (RATS). See coverage in New Economist and in Economist’s View.
14. "Identifying
the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market" (coauthor: Kai Leitemo). Journal of Monetary Economics, 56,
2009, 275-282. (For a previous working paper version, see here.) For robustness tests, see the Appendix. See here for Data and codes for download (RATS). See coverage in New Economist, Aftenposten, Finansavisen and in E24. One of the 10 Most Cited articles in
Journal of Monetary Economics since 2009.
15. "Oil
price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country". Scottish Journal of Political
Economy, 56(2), 2009, 232-254.
16. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain
output gap"
(coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore). Empirical Economics, 35, 2008,
413-436. Working paper version available at Norges
Bank Working Paper 2006/2.
17. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110, 2008, 197-221. (For a previous working paper version, see here).
18. "The
commodity currency puzzle"
(coauthor: Håvard Hungnes), IUP
Journal of Monetary Economics, Icfai Press,
VI, 2008, 7-30. (For a previous working paper version see Discussion Papers No. 423, 2005, Statistics Norway).
19. "The importance of interest rates for
forecasting the exchange rate" (coauthor: Håvard Hungnes). Journal
of Forecasting 25, 2006, 209-221. (For a previous working paper
version, see here).
20. "A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: The case of Venezuela". Applied Economics, 37, 2005, 375-385. Data file can be downloaded from here.
21. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela". Economics Bulletin, 6, 2004, 1-8. Data file can be downloaded from here.
22. "The role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in a small open economy". Open Economies Review, 15, 2004, 23-43.
23. "Identifying Domestic and Imported Core
Inflation". Applied Economics, 33, 2001, 1819-1831. (For a
previous working paper version, see IMF Working Paper No. 00/4, also available
at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=879310 ).
24. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks - A comparative study". The Manchester School of Economic Studies, 68, 2000, 578-607.
25. "Detrending Methods and Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in Norway - An international comparison". Empirical Economics, 25, 2000, 369-392.
26. "Structural breaks and stochastic trends in macroeconomic variables in Norway". Applied Economics Letters, 6, 1999, 133-138.
27. “The Economic Effects of North
Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector”. Scottish Journal of
Political Economy, 45, 1998, 553-585.
Selected
publications in Norwegian
·
"NOU
2016:20 Aksjeandelen i Statens pensjonsfond utland" (Mork utvalget).
o Lysark
brukt under utvalgets presentasjon
o Kommentarer fra Bruno Gerard på presentasjon på BI
19 Oktober
·
"NOU
2015:9 Finanspolitikk i en oljeøkonomi — Praktisering av
handlingsregelen"
(Thøgersen utvalget)
·
"Ringvirkninger i
råvareproduserende land",
(coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud), Forskningsnytt, Samfunnsøkonomen 1/2016
·
"Hva skjer når oljeprisen
faller?"
(coauthor Leif Anders
Thorsrud) Samfunnsøkonomen
2/2015
·
"Ringvirkninger -
Norsk økonomi og olje",
CME Working Paper 7, 2013, (coauthor
Leif Anders Thorsrud).
·
"Statsbudsjett
i en uvanlig høykonjunktur",
Økonomisk forum nr. 8
2007
·
"Produksjonsgapet i Norge – en sammenlikning av
metoder"
(coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore), Penger og Kreditt 4/2004, Norges Bank.
·
"Konjunkturforskning
i et historisk lys. Er konjunktursvingninger like reelle som før?"
Økonomisk forum nr. 1,
2002, 30-40.
·
"Håpløse
spådommer, bølgeteori og falske sykler". Sosialøkonomen
nr. 6, 1998, 18-27.
·
"Kilder
til konjunktursvingninger i norsk økonomi". Økonomiske
analyser, 4/98, Statistics Norway, 1998, 3-13.
·
"Estimering
av underliggende inflasjon". Sosialøkonomen nr. 7/8, 1997,
14-20.
Reports
·
Swedish
Fiscal Policy Council (Finanspolitiska rådet) Reports
2016, 2015.
·
"Should monetary policy pay attention to financial stability?"
in ‘Erfaringer med
inflasjonsmål for Pengepolitikken’,
Finansdepartementet, Arbeidsnotat
2017/4, pages 77-83.
·
"What is the effect of an oil price
decrease on the Norwegian economy?"
A note based on the paper by Bjørnland and Thorsrud (2014), for more
details, see CAMP
Working Paper No 6/2014.
·
"An
Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway" (coauthors:
Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen), Norges Bank Watch Report 2011, Centre for Monetary Economics (CME), BI
Norwegian Business School.
·
"An Independent Review of Monetary
Policymaking in Norway"
(coauthors: Richard Clarida, Elisabeth Holvik and
Erling Steigum), Norges Bank Watch Report
2010, Centre for Monetary Economics (CME),
BI Norwegian Business School.
·
”Improving
and evaluating short term forecasts at the Norges Bank” (coauthors: Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud), Staff Memo
No. 4 2008
·
"The
output gap in Norway - a comparison of different methods (coauthors: Leif Brubakk and Anne Sofie Jore),
Economic Bulletin 2/2005, Norges Bank.
·
"An
Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway" (coauthors: Thomas Ekeli, Petra M. Geraats and Kai Leitemo), Norges Bank Watch Report Series 5, 2004,
Centre for Monetary Economics (CME), BI Norwegian School of Management.
·
"Fundamental
determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway" (coauthor: Håvard Hungnes). Discussion Papers No. 326, 2002,
Statistics Norway (also published, in a previous version, as Memorandum 23,
2002, University of Oslo).
·
VAR models in
Macroeconomic Research,
Documents 2000/14, Statistics Norway.
·
"Economic
fluctuations: A study of sources and the dynamic effects of real and nominal
shocks". University of Oslo, Økonomiske
Doktoravhandlinger nr. 46,
1998.
· "Trends, Cycles and Measures of Persistence in the Norwegian Economy". Social and Economic Studies 92, 1995, Statistics Norway. (ISBN 82-537-4220-7).